Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.341199 0.387543 0.437855 0.496533 0.563097 0.636276 0.722851
2025-09-28 0.268780 0.329102 0.399595 0.488070 0.596197 0.724121 0.887102
2025-10-05 0.228048 0.298779 0.387107 0.505551 0.660359 0.856043 1.122605
2025-10-12 0.189634 0.264524 0.363975 0.505773 0.703012 0.968110 1.352368
2025-10-19 0.161612 0.239001 0.347826 0.512128 0.754338 1.099059 1.628560
2025-10-26 0.141345 0.220762 0.338579 0.526239 0.818329 1.256908 1.968169
2025-11-02 0.117685 0.193445 0.311604 0.509481 0.833546 1.345153 2.218152
2025-11-09 0.096980 0.167242 0.282099 0.483718 0.830071 1.403229 2.429179
2025-11-16 0.083073 0.149889 0.264057 0.473571 0.850085 1.501468 2.721319
2025-11-23 0.071397 0.134448 0.246788 0.461792 0.865001 1.592507 3.014424
2025-11-30 0.064800 0.127082 0.242556 0.472561 0.921745 1.765244 3.482306
2025-12-07 0.055722 0.113572 0.224951 0.455369 0.923012 1.835117 3.764968
2025-12-14 0.048929 0.103725 0.213363 0.449126 0.946784 1.955747 4.176462
2025-12-21 0.042832 0.094319 0.201245 0.439951 0.963347 2.065014 4.584252
2025-12-28 0.039703 0.090699 0.200475 0.454568 1.032532 2.293879 5.286772
2026-01-04 0.035708 0.084511 0.193269 0.453947 1.068271 2.456616 5.870444
2026-01-11 0.032629 0.079916 0.188888 0.459051 1.117938 2.658198 6.578691
2026-01-18 0.030364 0.076878 0.187604 0.471251 1.186402 2.913869 7.460645
2026-01-25 0.026724 0.069861 0.175813 0.455938 1.185217 3.003375 7.946089
2026-02-01 0.023140 0.062394 0.161773 0.432675 1.160179 3.030269 8.275887
2026-02-08 0.020715 0.057563 0.153640 0.423451 1.170247 3.147965 8.867268
2026-02-15 0.018519 0.052989 0.145474 0.412815 1.174817 3.252054 9.439908
2026-02-22 0.017410 0.051259 0.144653 0.422360 1.236952 3.521270 10.526189